Stadion Galgenwaard · Referee Freek Vandeursen, Netherlands · Analysis updated 16:11 UTC
Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Utrecht and 3.00 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives PSV Eindhoven the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
PSV Eindhoven win
72.6% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Utrecht home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
PSV Eindhoven away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
27%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.0%
- 1–38.0%
- 0–26.4%
- 0–36.4%
- 1–46.0%
Recent form
Utrecht
- 2026-10-11T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:15:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-6 (L)
PSV Eindhoven
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T10:15:00.000Z · Utrecht 1-6 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2026-04-04T14:30:00.000Z · Utrecht 3-4 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2025-12-21T11:15:00.000Z · Utrecht 1-2 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2025-02-15T15:30:00.000Z · Utrecht 2-2 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2024-12-01T11:15:00.000Z · Utrecht 2-5 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2024-01-21T11:15:00.000Z · Utrecht 1-1 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2023-08-12T14:30:00.000Z · Utrecht 0-2 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2023-02-19T13:30:00.000Z · Utrecht 2-2 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2022-10-16T12:30:00.000Z · Utrecht 1-6 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2022-03-13T13:30:00.000Z · Utrecht 0-1 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is PSV Eindhoven win, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.