· Analysis updated 16:56 UTC
Utrecht vs Sevilla Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.35 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Sevilla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sevilla win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Utrecht home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sevilla away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sevilla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 25% / 28% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Utrecht and 1.35 for Sevilla, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.2%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–010.5%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–09.5%
Recent form
Utrecht
- 2026-10-11T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:15:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-6 (L)
Sevilla
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Levante · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sevilla win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.