Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch · Referee C. van Kruiselbergen · Analysis updated 08:44 UTC
Utrecht W vs Heerenveen W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Utrecht W and 1.45 for Heerenveen W, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Utrecht W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Utrecht W win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Utrecht W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Heerenveen W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Utrecht W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 23% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Utrecht W and 1.45 for Heerenveen W, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.3%
- 1–06.9%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Utrecht W
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle W · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · A vs AZ W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV/Eindhoven W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Ajax W · 0-1 (L)
Heerenveen W
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Twente W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-23T10:15:00.000Z · A vs De Graafschap W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ajax W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht W · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Twente W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 18 |
| 2 | Ajax W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | AZ W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 12 |
| 4 | PSV/Eindhoven W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Heerenveen W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 6 | ADO Den Haag W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 7 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 8 | De Graafschap W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 9 | Feyenoord W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 10 | Utrecht W | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Utrecht W win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.