Utrera vs Conil Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Utrera and 0.71 for Conil, a combined total of 2.41. That distribution gives Utrera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Utrera win

61.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 0.71

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Utrera home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Conil away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Utrera to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 24% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Utrera and 0.71 for Conil, a combined 2.41 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Utrera win61%

Draw24%

Conil win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–015.3%
2–013.0%
1–110.9%
2–19.2%
0–09.0%

Recent form

Utrera

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Linense · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cádiz II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo Huelva · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pozoblanco · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Conil · 2-0 (W)

Conil

2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Córdoba II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo Huelva · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Linense · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cádiz II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dos Hermanas · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Utrera	6	5	0	1	3	15
2	Dos Hermanas	6	4	1	1	8	13
3	Portuense	6	4	1	1	7	13
4	Betis C	6	4	1	1	6	13
5	Tomares	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	Pozoblanco	6	3	1	2	4	10
7	Egabrense	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	San Roque Lepe	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Xerez Deportivo	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Chiclana	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Recreativo Huelva	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	Ceuta II	6	2	1	3	-4	7
13	Linense	6	2	0	4	-2	6
14	Conil	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Cádiz II	6	1	2	3	-1	5
16	Bollullos	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Sevilla III	6	1	2	3	-3	5
18	Córdoba II	6	0	2	4	-7	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Utrera win, at 61.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.