Utrera vs Portuense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Utrera and 1.24 for Portuense, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Portuense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.19 – 1.24

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Utrera home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Portuense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 35% / 28% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.19 goals for Utrera and 1.24 for Portuense, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 49%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Utrera win35%

Draw28%

Portuense win38%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–113.0%
0–110.9%
1–010.5%
0–08.8%
1–28.1%

Recent form

Utrera

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Linense · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cádiz II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo Huelva · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pozoblanco · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Conil · 2-0 (W)

Portuense

2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Xerez · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Utrera	6	5	0	1	3	15
2	Dos Hermanas	6	4	1	1	8	13
3	Portuense	6	4	1	1	7	13
4	Betis C	6	4	1	1	6	13
5	Tomares	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	Pozoblanco	6	3	1	2	4	10
7	Egabrense	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	San Roque Lepe	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Xerez Deportivo	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Chiclana	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Recreativo Huelva	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	Ceuta II	6	2	1	3	-4	7
13	Linense	6	2	0	4	-2	6
14	Conil	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Cádiz II	6	1	2	3	-1	5
16	Bollullos	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Sevilla III	6	1	2	3	-3	5
18	Córdoba II	6	0	2	4	-7	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.