· Analysis updated 12:42 UTC
Utrillas vs Caspe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Utrillas and 1.56 for Caspe, a combined total of 3.14. That distribution gives Utrillas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Utrillas home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Caspe away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Utrillas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Utrillas and 1.56 for Caspe, a combined 3.14 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–06.8%
- 0–16.8%
Recent form
Utrillas
- 2026-05-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Caspe · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Binéfar · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs UD Casetas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zuera · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs La Almunia · 3-3 (D)
Caspe
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Brea · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cuarte · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Épila · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Binéfar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Zaragoza II · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Zaragoza II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Ejea | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Caspe | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Fraga | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Cuarte | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 7 | Épila | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Binéfar | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Huesca II | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | La Almunia | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Atlético Monzón | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | CDJ Tamarite | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Almudévar | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 14 | Andorra CF | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Illueca | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | CD Sietamo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Robres | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
| 18 | Belchite 97 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.