· Analysis updated 17:48 UTC
Utrillas vs UD Casetas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Utrillas and 1.48 for UD Casetas, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Utrillas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Utrillas win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Utrillas home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UD Casetas away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Utrillas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Utrillas and 1.48 for UD Casetas, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.4%
- 1–06.8%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
Utrillas
- 2026-05-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Caspe · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Binéfar · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs UD Casetas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zuera · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs La Almunia · 3-3 (D)
UD Casetas
- 2026-05-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Belchite 97 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Andorra CF · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Utrillas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs CDJ Tamarite · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Monzón · 2-7 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · Utrillas 3-3 UD Casetas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
- 2025-12-21T11:00:00.000Z · Utrillas 0-0 UD Casetas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Zaragoza II | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | Ejea | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Cuarte | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Brea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | La Almunia | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Caspe | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Épila | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Fraga | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Atlético Monzón | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 10 | Binéfar | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Huesca II | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 12 | Illueca | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | CDJ Tamarite | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 14 | Almudévar | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Andorra CF | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | CD Sietamo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Robres | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
| 18 | Belchite 97 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -15 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Utrillas win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.