· Analysis updated 17:41 UTC
Utsikten vs BK Hacken Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.71 expected goals for Utsikten and 3.24 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives BK Hacken the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
BK Hacken win
85.4% probability
Expected goals
0.71 – 3.24
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Utsikten home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BK Hacken away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
15%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
95%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–310.9%
- 0–210.1%
- 0–48.8%
- 1–37.7%
- 1–27.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — Yes at 2.10 (model 48.5% vs market 43.2%, edge +5.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | YesValue | 2.10 | 43.2% | 48.5% | 2.06 | +5.3 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 2.20 | 42.4% | 44.9% | 2.23 | +2.5 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 3.85 | 24.1% | 25.2% | 3.97 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 21.00 | 4.3% | 4.9% | 20.41 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 1.07 | 85.1% | 85.4% | 1.17 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 8.60 | 10.6% | 9.7% | 10.31 | -0.9 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.22 | 75.9% | 74.8% | 1.34 | -1.1 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 1.62 | 57.6% | 55.1% | 1.81 | -2.5 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.60 | 56.8% | 51.5% | 1.94 | -5.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Utsikten
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Jonkopings Sodra · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Malmo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Laholm · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Trollhättan · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lund · 1-1 (D)
BK Hacken
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Orgryte IS · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Elfsborg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalmar FF · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjallby AIF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gais · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-25T16:30:00.000Z · Utsikten 1-2 BK Hacken (Svenska Cupen)
- 2022-11-11T16:00:00.000Z · Utsikten 2-1 BK Hacken (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-03-17T00:00:00.000Z · Utsikten 3-4 BK Hacken (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-08-18T16:30:00.000Z · Utsikten 1-5 BK Hacken (Svenska Cupen)
- 2020-03-28T12:00:00.000Z · Utsikten 2-5 BK Hacken (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is BK Hacken win, at 85.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.