Uttaradit Provincial Sport Stadium · Analysis updated 13:09 UTC
Uttaradit vs Nakhon Pathom Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Uttaradit and 1.24 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 3.14. That distribution gives Uttaradit the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Uttaradit win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.89 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nakhon Pathom away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uttaradit to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for Uttaradit and 1.24 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined 3.14 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.4%
Recent form
Uttaradit
Nakhon Pathom
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kasetsart FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Kanchanaburi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Phrae United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Phrae United · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khon Kaen United | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Chainat | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 3 | Uttaradit | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Nong Bua Pitchaya | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Satun | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Kanchanaburi | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Chiangmai United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Police Tero | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Phrae United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Nakhon Pathom | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Muang Loei United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Chanthaburi | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Muangthong United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Esan Pattaya | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Songkhla | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 17 | Mahasarakham United | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Kasetsart FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Uttaradit win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.