Uttaradit Provincial Sport Stadium · Analysis updated 06:33 UTC
Uttaradit vs Nong Bua Pitchaya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Uttaradit and 1.76 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Uttaradit the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Uttaradit win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nong Bua Pitchaya away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uttaradit to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 21% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Uttaradit and 1.76 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 73%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.9%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
Uttaradit
Nong Bua Pitchaya
- 2026-10-21T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bangkok · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nakhon Pathom · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-14T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Chiangmai United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chanthaburi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Satun · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khon Kaen United | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Uttaradit | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Nong Bua Pitchaya | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Satun | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Kanchanaburi | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Chainat | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Chiangmai United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Phrae United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Chanthaburi | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Police Tero | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Nakhon Pathom | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Muang Loei United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Muangthong United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Esan Pattaya | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | Songkhla | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Mahasarakham United | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Kasetsart FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Uttaradit win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.