· Analysis updated 02:10 UTC
Uttaradit vs Police Tero Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Uttaradit and 1.48 for Police Tero, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Uttaradit the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Uttaradit win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Police Tero away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uttaradit to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Uttaradit and 1.48 for Police Tero, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.4%
- 1–06.8%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
Uttaradit
Police Tero
- 2026-10-21T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Surin · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kasetsart FC · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Kanchanaburi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Khon Kaen United · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khon Kaen United | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Uttaradit | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Nong Bua Pitchaya | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Satun | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Kanchanaburi | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Chainat | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Chiangmai United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Phrae United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Chanthaburi | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Police Tero | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Nakhon Pathom | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Muang Loei United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Muangthong United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Esan Pattaya | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | Songkhla | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Mahasarakham United | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Kasetsart FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Uttaradit win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.