Uttaradit Provincial Sport Stadium · Analysis updated 13:08 UTC
Uttaradit vs Satun Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for Uttaradit and 1.67 for Satun, a combined total of 3.69. That distribution gives Uttaradit the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Uttaradit win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
2.02 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uttaradit to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 21% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.02 goals for Uttaradit and 1.67 for Satun, a combined 3.69 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 70%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 46% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–27.0%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
Uttaradit
Satun
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Nong Bua Pitchaya · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Muangthong United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Songkhla · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kanchanaburi · 2-4 (L)
- 2025-12-28T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Lamphun Warrior · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khon Kaen United | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Chainat | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 3 | Uttaradit | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Nong Bua Pitchaya | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Satun | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Kanchanaburi | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Chiangmai United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Police Tero | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Phrae United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Nakhon Pathom | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Muang Loei United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Chanthaburi | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Muangthong United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Esan Pattaya | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Songkhla | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 17 | Mahasarakham United | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Kasetsart FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Uttaradit win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.