· Analysis updated 10:52 UTC
UWI Blackbirds vs Ellerton Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for UWI Blackbirds and 1.34 for Ellerton, a combined total of 3.01. That distribution gives UWI Blackbirds the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
UWI Blackbirds win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UWI Blackbirds home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ellerton away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UWI Blackbirds to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for UWI Blackbirds and 1.34 for Ellerton, a combined 3.01 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.2%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–06.9%
Recent form
UWI Blackbirds
- 2026-05-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Andrew Lions · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-18T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Weymouth Wales · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-10T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bagatelle · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Pride of Gall Hill · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-19T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Kick Start · 1-1 (D)
Ellerton
- 2026-05-28T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Brittons Hill · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-20T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Paradise · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Andrew Lions · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-04T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Weymouth Wales · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-27T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Bagatelle · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weymouth Wales | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 56 | 49 |
| 2 | Brittons Hill | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 33 |
| 3 | Ellerton | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 33 |
| 4 | UWI Blackbirds | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 29 |
| 5 | Pride of Gall Hill | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | -1 | 27 |
| 6 | Kick Start | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | -4 | 21 |
| 7 | Paradise | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Wotton | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -12 | 18 |
| 9 | Deacons | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -31 | 17 |
| 10 | Silver Sands | 18 | 0 | 1 | 17 | -59 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is UWI Blackbirds win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.