Istiqlol Stadium · Referee K. Levnikov · Analysis updated 14:47 UTC
Uzbekistan vs Iran Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Uzbekistan and 1.68 for Iran, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Iran the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Iran win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Uzbekistan home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Iran away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–19.0%
- 0–27.5%
- 2–17.0%
Recent form
Uzbekistan
- 2026-10-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs South Korea · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Syria · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Iran · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-27T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Congo DR · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Portugal · 0-5 (L)
Iran
- 2026-06-27T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Egypt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-21T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgium · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-16T01:00:00.000Z · H vs New Zealand · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Mali · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Gambia · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-11-18T16:00:00.000Z · Uzbekistan 0-0 Iran (Friendlies)
- 2025-09-08T14:30:00.000Z · Uzbekistan 1-0 Iran (CAFA Nations Cup)
- 2025-03-25T16:00:00.000Z · Uzbekistan 2-2 Iran (World Cup - Qualification Asia)
- 2024-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · Uzbekistan 0-0 Iran (World Cup - Qualification Asia)
- 2024-06-11T17:00:00.000Z · Uzbekistan 0-0 Iran (World Cup - Qualification Asia)
- 2023-11-21T13:00:00.000Z · Uzbekistan 2-2 Iran (World Cup - Qualification Asia)
- 2023-06-20T15:30:00.000Z · Uzbekistan 0-1 Iran (CAFA Nations Cup)
- 2020-10-08T13:00:00.000Z · Uzbekistan 1-2 Iran (Friendlies)
- 2018-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · Uzbekistan 0-1 Iran (Friendlies)
- 2018-05-19T16:30:00.000Z · Uzbekistan 0-1 Iran (Friendlies)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Iran win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.