Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium · Analysis updated 16:33 UTC
Uzbekistan vs Syria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.25 expected goals for Uzbekistan and 1.38 for Syria, a combined total of 4.63. That distribution gives Uzbekistan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Uzbekistan win
73.7% probability
Expected goals
3.25 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Uzbekistan home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Syria away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uzbekistan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 14% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.25 goals for Uzbekistan and 1.38 for Syria, a combined 4.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.7%
- 2–17.1%
- 4–16.3%
- 3–05.6%
- 3–25.3%
Recent form
Uzbekistan
- 2026-10-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs South Korea · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Syria · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Iran · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-27T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Congo DR · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Portugal · 0-5 (L)
Syria
- 2026-06-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Belarus · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-03-31T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Afghanistan · 5-1 (W)
- 2025-12-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Morocco · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-12-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestine · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-12-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Qatar · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Uzbekistan win, at 73.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.