Cbus Super Stadium · Analysis updated 11:08 UTC
Uzbekistan W vs Philippines W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Uzbekistan W and 1.53 for Philippines W, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Uzbekistan W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.7% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Uzbekistan W home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Philippines W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uzbekistan W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 24% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Uzbekistan W and 1.53 for Philippines W, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.0%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Uzbekistan W
- 2026-09-25T10:30:00.000Z · A vs South Korea W · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-09-21T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Hong Kong W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T05:00:00.000Z · H vs China W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Philippines W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-06T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Thailand W · 0-1 (L)
Philippines W
- 2026-09-25T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Japan W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-21T07:00:00.000Z · A vs China W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hong Kong W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Uzbekistan W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-09T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Albion San Diego W · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Asian Cup Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Japan W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 18 |
| 2 | Australia W | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | China W | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| 4 | South Korea W | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| 5 | Korea DPR W | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | Chinese Taipei W | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 7 | Philippines W | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 6 |
| 8 | Vietnam W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 9 | Uzbekistan W | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 3 |
| 10 | Iran W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
| 11 | Bangladesh W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 0 |
| 12 | India W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.