V-varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for V-varen Nagasaki and 1.76 for FC Tokyo, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives FC Tokyo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Tokyo win

54.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.02 – 1.76

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

V-varen Nagasaki home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Tokyo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Tokyo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 22% / 24% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for V-varen Nagasaki and 1.76 for FC Tokyo, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

V-varen Nagasaki win22%

Draw24%

FC Tokyo win55%

Double chance 1X

45%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–111.2%
0–110.9%
1–29.8%
0–29.6%
1–06.4%

Recent form

V-varen Nagasaki

2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gainare Tottori · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Cerezo Osaka · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kochi United · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Vissel Kobe · 1-3 (L)

FC Tokyo

2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ehime FC · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Nagoya Grampus · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gamba Osaka · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Kyoto Sanga · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Shimizu S-pulse · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J1 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	11	8	2	1	20	26
2	FC Tokyo	11	7	3	1	13	24
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	11	7	2	2	15	23
4	Vissel Kobe	11	7	1	3	7	22
5	Kashiwa Reysol	11	7	1	3	5	22
6	Kashima	11	6	2	3	5	20
7	Kawasaki Frontale	11	5	4	2	6	19
8	Urawa	11	6	0	5	-3	18
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	11	4	5	2	4	17
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	5	1	5	-1	16
11	Shimizu S-pulse	11	4	2	5	-6	14
12	Nagoya Grampus	11	4	1	6	-4	13
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	3	4	4	-7	13
14	V-varen Nagasaki	11	3	3	5	-3	12
15	Gamba Osaka	11	2	4	5	-7	10
16	Mito Hollyhock	11	2	3	6	-4	9
17	Kyoto Sanga	11	2	3	6	-8	9
18	Avispa Fukuoka	11	2	1	8	-6	7
19	JEF United Chiba	11	1	3	7	-12	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	11	0	5	6	-14	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Tokyo win, at 54.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.