Peace Stadium · Referee Yoshimi Yamashita, Japan · Analysis updated 01:00 UTC
V-varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for V-varen Nagasaki and 1.70 for Gamba Osaka, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Gamba Osaka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
V-varen Nagasaki home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gamba Osaka away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.0%
- 2–17.7%
- 0–17.3%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
V-varen Nagasaki
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gainare Tottori · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Cerezo Osaka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kochi United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Vissel Kobe · 1-3 (L)
Gamba Osaka
- 2026-10-24T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyoto Sanga · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Avispa Fukuoka · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Shimizu S-pulse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-13T07:45:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle Jets · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kashima · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-02T10:00:00.000Z · V-varen Nagasaki 2-2 Gamba Osaka (J1 League)
- 2026-04-25T09:30:00.000Z · V-varen Nagasaki 1-1 Gamba Osaka (J1 League)
- 2026-03-08T06:00:00.000Z · V-varen Nagasaki 2-3 Gamba Osaka (J1 League)
- 2025-02-01T02:00:00.000Z · V-varen Nagasaki 5-5 Gamba Osaka (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2019-06-26T10:00:00.000Z · V-varen Nagasaki 2-0 Gamba Osaka (J-League Cup)
- 2019-06-19T10:00:00.000Z · V-varen Nagasaki 1-4 Gamba Osaka (J-League Cup)
- 2018-11-24T05:00:00.000Z · V-varen Nagasaki 1-2 Gamba Osaka (J1 League)
- 2018-04-14T05:00:00.000Z · V-varen Nagasaki 3-0 Gamba Osaka (J1 League)
- 2013-09-01T09:00:00.000Z · V-varen Nagasaki 2-1 Gamba Osaka (J2 League)
- 2013-03-10T04:00:00.000Z · V-varen Nagasaki 1-3 Gamba Osaka (J2 League)
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 27 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 26 |
| 4 | Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 25 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Kawasaki Frontale | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 7 | Urawa | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 21 |
| 8 | Kashima | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 | Shimizu S-pulse | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 17 | Mito Hollyhock | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 18 | Tokyo Verdy | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 19 | Avispa Fukuoka | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.