V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for V-varen Nagasaki and 1.63 for Nagoya Grampus, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives V-varen Nagasaki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

V-varen Nagasaki home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nagoya Grampus away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

V-varen Nagasaki win40%

Draw23%

Nagoya Grampus win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.9%
2–18.4%
1–28.1%
2–26.9%
1–06.1%

Recent form

V-varen Nagasaki

2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gainare Tottori · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Cerezo Osaka · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kochi United · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Vissel Kobe · 1-3 (L)

Nagoya Grampus

2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerezo Osaka · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kashiwa Reysol · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Fagiano Okayama · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-11T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Kawasaki Frontale · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-03T08:00:00.000Z · V-varen Nagasaki 1-2 Nagoya Grampus (J1 League)
2026-02-21T06:00:00.000Z · V-varen Nagasaki 3-1 Nagoya Grampus (J1 League)
2018-09-15T09:00:00.000Z · V-varen Nagasaki 4-3 Nagoya Grampus (J1 League)
2018-05-12T05:00:00.000Z · V-varen Nagasaki 3-0 Nagoya Grampus (J1 League)
2017-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · V-varen Nagasaki 1-1 Nagoya Grampus (J2 League)
2017-06-25T09:30:00.000Z · V-varen Nagasaki 0-2 Nagoya Grampus (J2 League)

J1 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	12	8	3	1	20	27
2	FC Tokyo	12	8	3	1	19	27
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	8	2	2	19	26
4	Kashiwa Reysol	12	8	1	3	6	25
5	Vissel Kobe	12	7	2	3	7	23
6	Kawasaki Frontale	12	6	4	2	7	22
7	Urawa	12	7	0	5	-2	21
8	Kashima	12	6	2	4	4	20
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	12	4	6	2	4	18
10	Fagiano Okayama	12	5	1	6	-2	16
11	Nagoya Grampus	12	4	2	6	-4	14
12	Cerezo Osaka	12	3	5	4	-7	14
13	Shimizu S-pulse	12	4	2	6	-10	14
14	V-varen Nagasaki	12	3	3	6	-4	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	2	5	5	-7	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	2	4	6	-8	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	12	2	3	7	-10	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	1	5	6	-12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	2	1	9	-8	7
20	JEF United Chiba	12	1	4	7	-12	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.