V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for V-varen Nagasaki and 0.93 for Tokyo Verdy, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives V-varen Nagasaki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

V-varen Nagasaki win

54.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.66 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

V-varen Nagasaki home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tokyo Verdy away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates V-varen Nagasaki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 24% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for V-varen Nagasaki and 0.93 for Tokyo Verdy, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

V-varen Nagasaki win55%

Draw24%

Tokyo Verdy win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–012.4%
1–111.6%
2–010.3%
2–19.6%
0–07.5%

Recent form

V-varen Nagasaki

2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gainare Tottori · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Cerezo Osaka · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kochi United · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Vissel Kobe · 1-3 (L)

Tokyo Verdy

2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagan Tosu · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Urawa · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs JEF United Chiba · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Biwako Shiga · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerezo Osaka · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J1 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	12	8	3	1	20	27
2	FC Tokyo	12	8	3	1	19	27
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	8	2	2	19	26
4	Kashiwa Reysol	12	8	1	3	6	25
5	Vissel Kobe	12	7	2	3	7	23
6	Kawasaki Frontale	12	6	4	2	7	22
7	Urawa	12	7	0	5	-2	21
8	Kashima	12	6	2	4	4	20
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	12	4	6	2	4	18
10	Fagiano Okayama	12	5	1	6	-2	16
11	Nagoya Grampus	12	4	2	6	-4	14
12	Cerezo Osaka	12	3	5	4	-7	14
13	Shimizu S-pulse	12	4	2	6	-10	14
14	V-varen Nagasaki	12	3	3	6	-4	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	2	5	5	-7	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	2	4	6	-8	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	12	2	3	7	-10	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	1	5	6	-12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	2	1	9	-8	7
20	JEF United Chiba	12	1	4	7	-12	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is V-varen Nagasaki win, at 54.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.