· Analysis updated 21:21 UTC
Vahr-Blockdiek vs Schwachhausen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Vahr-Blockdiek and 2.06 for Schwachhausen, a combined total of 3.82. That distribution gives Schwachhausen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Schwachhausen win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 2.06
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vahr-Blockdiek home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Schwachhausen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Schwachhausen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 34% / 21% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Vahr-Blockdiek and 2.06 for Schwachhausen, a combined 3.82 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.2%
- 1–17.9%
- 2–27.2%
- 2–17.0%
- 1–35.6%
Recent form
Vahr-Blockdiek
- 2025-05-16T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Brinkumer SV · 0-6 (L)
- 2025-05-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Woltmershausen · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Blumenthaler SV · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-04-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Bremen · 1-8 (L)
- 2025-04-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen III · 1-2 (L)
Schwachhausen
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Leher TS · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Aumund-Vegesack · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Grohn · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Eiche Horn · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs BTS Neustadt · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2024-07-18T17:00:00.000Z · Vahr-Blockdiek 2-4 Schwachhausen (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Schwachhausen win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.