Estadio Dr. Jorge Sampaio · Analysis updated 04:45 UTC
Valadares Gaia W vs Torreense W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Valadares Gaia W and 2.06 for Torreense W, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Torreense W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Torreense W win
59.0% probability
Expected goals
1.12 – 2.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Torreense W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Torreense W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 20% / 21% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Valadares Gaia W and 2.06 for Torreense W, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.6%
- 0–28.9%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–36.8%
Recent form
Valadares Gaia W
Torreense W
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Braga W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Metalist 1925 W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Marítimo W · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Metalist 1925 W · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1a Divisão - Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Torreense W | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 12 |
| 2 | SL Benfica W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 |
| 3 | Sporting CP W | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Valadares Gaia W | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Sporting Braga W | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 6 | Porto W | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Racing Power W | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | Rio Ave W | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 10 | Marítimo W | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -24 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Torreense W win, at 59.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.