Valašské Meziříčí vs Bospor Bohumín Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Valašské Meziříčí and 2.95 for Bospor Bohumín, a combined total of 4.80. That distribution gives Bospor Bohumín the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bospor Bohumín win

60.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 2.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Valašské Meziříčí home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bospor Bohumín away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Valašské Meziříčí win23%

Draw17%

Bospor Bohumín win60%

Double chance 1X

40%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals85%

Over 3.5 goals70%

Both teams to score80%

Correct score

1–26.6%
1–36.5%
2–26.1%
2–36.0%
1–44.8%

Recent form

Valašské Meziříčí

2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Frýdlant · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-18T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Stonava · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hlučín · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Frydek-Mistek B · 4-2 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Jiskra Rýmařov · 2-2 (D)

Bospor Bohumín

2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Frydek-Mistek B · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jiskra Rýmařov · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vratimov · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Šumperk · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kravare · 5-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-06-12T15:30:00.000Z · Valašské Meziříčí 3-5 Bospor Bohumín (4. liga - Divizie F)
2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · Valašské Meziříčí 3-4 Bospor Bohumín (4. liga - Divizie F)
2024-05-26T15:00:00.000Z · Valašské Meziříčí 1-3 Bospor Bohumín (4. liga - Divizie F)
2023-10-21T12:30:00.000Z · Valašské Meziříčí 0-1 Bospor Bohumín (4. liga - Divizie F)
2023-04-15T08:00:00.000Z · Valašské Meziříčí 0-3 Bospor Bohumín (4. liga - Divizie F)
2022-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · Valašské Meziříčí 0-2 Bospor Bohumín (4. liga - Divizie F)

4. liga - Divizie F table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bospor Bohumín	11	9	0	2	22	27
2	Kravare	11	8	2	1	15	26
3	Vratimov	11	8	0	3	7	24
4	Hlučín	11	6	2	3	5	20
5	Opava II	11	6	1	4	6	19
6	Jiskra Rýmařov	11	5	2	4	9	17
7	Stonava	11	5	2	4	3	17
8	Valašské Meziříčí	11	4	4	3	5	16
9	Zabreh	11	4	3	4	1	15
10	Nový Jičín	11	4	3	4	-3	15
11	Frydek-Mistek B	11	4	0	7	-4	12
12	Pustá Polom	11	3	2	6	-6	11
13	Šumperk	11	2	4	5	-3	10
14	Břidličná	11	3	1	7	-10	10
15	Bílovec	11	2	2	7	-17	8
16	Frýdlant	11	1	0	10	-30	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bospor Bohumín win, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.