Valencia II vs Castellón II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Valencia II and 2.00 for Castellón II, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Castellón II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Castellón II win

55.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Valencia II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Castellón II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Castellón II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 23% / 22% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Valencia II and 2.00 for Castellón II, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Valencia II win23%

Draw22%

Castellón II win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–29.8%
1–19.8%
0–28.1%
0–18.1%
1–36.5%

Recent form

Valencia II

2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Peña Deportiva · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Poblense · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Castellón II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ucam Murcia · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Mallorca II · 1-1 (D)

Castellón II

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lorca Deportiva · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Orihuela · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcoyano · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Intercity · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ucam Murcia	7	5	0	2	9	15
2	Castellón II	6	4	0	2	6	12
3	Castellonense	6	4	0	2	4	12
4	La Nucía	6	4	0	2	4	12
5	Cieza	6	3	2	1	6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	3	2	1	2	11
7	Yeclano	7	2	4	1	1	10
8	Alcoyano	6	3	1	2	0	10
9	Orihuela	7	3	1	3	-5	10
10	Lorca Deportiva	7	2	3	2	1	9
11	Intercity	6	2	3	1	0	9
12	Elche II	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Atlético Baleares	7	1	4	2	-3	7
14	Poblense	7	2	1	4	-3	7
15	Mallorca II	7	1	3	3	-4	6
16	Peña Deportiva	7	1	1	5	-4	4
17	Valencia II	6	1	1	4	-5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	1	1	4	-7	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Castellón II win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.