Estadio de Mestalla · Analysis updated 13:09 UTC
Valencia vs Getafe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Valencia and 1.47 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Getafe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Getafe win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Valencia home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Getafe away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Getafe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 24% / 26% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Valencia and 1.47 for Getafe, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.1%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Valencia
- 2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla · 0-1 (L)
Getafe
- 2026-10-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Vallecano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Craiova · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Malaga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 7 | Alaves | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Osasuna | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 11 | Levante | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Villarreal | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Getafe | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Espanyol | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 8 |
| 17 | Racing Santander | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Elche | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 19 | Valencia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 | Malaga | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Getafe win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.