Estadio de Mestalla · Analysis updated 14:34 UTC
Valencia vs Levante Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Valencia and 1.57 for Levante, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Levante the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Valencia home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Levante away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Levante to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 31% / 25% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Valencia and 1.57 for Levante, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 0–19.3%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–17.3%
Recent form
Valencia
- 2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla · 0-1 (L)
Levante
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 7 | Alaves | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Osasuna | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 11 | Levante | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Villarreal | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Getafe | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Espanyol | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 8 |
| 17 | Racing Santander | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Elche | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 19 | Valencia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 | Malaga | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.