Valenciennes vs Boulogne Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.03 for Boulogne, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Valenciennes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Valenciennes win

57.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Valenciennes home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Boulogne away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Valenciennes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Valenciennes and 1.03 for Boulogne, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Valenciennes win58%

Draw22%

Boulogne win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–110.5%
1–010.2%
2–19.9%
2–09.7%
3–16.3%

Recent form

Valenciennes

2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Versailles · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Puy Foot · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs La Roche VF · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Fleury 91 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rouen · 1-1 (D)

Boulogne

2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nantes · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Clermont Foot · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dijon · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Montpellier · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · Valenciennes 1-1 Boulogne (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-03-28T18:30:00.000Z · Valenciennes 2-3 Boulogne (Ligue 3)
2024-11-01T18:30:00.000Z · Valenciennes 0-0 Boulogne (Ligue 3)
2022-07-23T13:30:00.000Z · Valenciennes 2-1 Boulogne (Friendlies Clubs)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Valenciennes win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.