Stade du Hainaut · Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Valenciennes vs Concarneau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.50 for Concarneau, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Concarneau the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Valenciennes home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Concarneau away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Concarneau to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 32% / 25% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Valenciennes and 1.50 for Concarneau, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Valenciennes
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Versailles · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Puy Foot · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs La Roche VF · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Fleury 91 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rouen · 1-1 (D)
Concarneau
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Gobelins · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Caen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Aubagne · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Thionville Lusitanos · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Rouen | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Concarneau | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Versailles | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Amiens | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Cannes | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 7 | Caen | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Le Puy Foot | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Thionville Lusitanos | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Fleury 91 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Gobelins | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Bastia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Quevilly | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Orleans | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Valenciennes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Aubagne | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
| 18 | Villefranche | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.