Stade du Hainaut · Analysis updated 07:58 UTC
Valenciennes vs Le Puy Foot Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.13 for Le Puy Foot, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Valenciennes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.3% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Valenciennes home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Le Puy Foot away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Valenciennes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 29% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Valenciennes and 1.13 for Le Puy Foot, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.9%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–27.5%
Recent form
Valenciennes
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Versailles · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Puy Foot · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs La Roche VF · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Fleury 91 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rouen · 1-1 (D)
Le Puy Foot
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Thionville Lusitanos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Valenciennes · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Villefranche · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Quevilly · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Orleans · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-23T18:30:00.000Z · Valenciennes 0-3 Le Puy Foot (Ligue 3)
- 2025-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · Valenciennes 2-1 Le Puy Foot (Ligue 3)
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Rouen | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Versailles | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Caen | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | Concarneau | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Le Puy Foot | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Amiens | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 8 | Cannes | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 9 | Fleury 91 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Gobelins | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Quevilly | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Thionville Lusitanos | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Bastia | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | Valenciennes | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Orleans | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Aubagne | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 | Villefranche | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 18 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.