· Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
Valenii de Munte vs ACS Mediaş 2022 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Valenii de Munte and 2.24 for ACS Mediaş 2022, a combined total of 4.19. That distribution gives ACS Mediaş 2022 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
ACS Mediaş 2022 win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 2.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Valenii de Munte home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
ACS Mediaş 2022 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ACS Mediaş 2022 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 35% / 20% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Valenii de Munte and 2.24 for ACS Mediaş 2022, a combined 4.19 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.4%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.6%
- 2–16.4%
- 1–35.5%
Recent form
Valenii de Munte
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Săcele · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tricolorul Breaza · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Carpati Covasna · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs ARO Muscelul Câmpulung · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs ACS Mediaş 2022 · 0-3 (L)
ACS Mediaş 2022
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tricolorul Breaza · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Carpati Covasna · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs ARO Muscelul Câmpulung · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Baicoi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Corona Braşov · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corona Braşov | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | ACS Mediaş 2022 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Baicoi | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 19 |
| 4 | Olimpic Zărneşti | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Inter Sibiu | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 15 |
| 6 | Sepsi II | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | ARO Muscelul Câmpulung | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Valenii de Munte | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Săcele | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Tricolorul Breaza | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 4 |
| 11 | Carpati Covasna | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -27 | 1 |
| 12 | Kids Tâmpa Braşov | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -18 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ACS Mediaş 2022 win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.