Croudace Bay Complex · Analysis updated 19:46 UTC
Valentine vs Broadmeadow Magic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Valentine and 2.30 for Broadmeadow Magic, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Broadmeadow Magic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Broadmeadow Magic win
70.0% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 2.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Valentine home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Broadmeadow Magic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 12% / 18% / 70% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Valentine and 2.30 for Broadmeadow Magic, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 52%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.3%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–38.7%
- 1–18.4%
Recent form
Valentine
- 2026-08-16T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Weston Bears · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamilton Olympic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Adamstown Rosebuds · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T06:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlestown City Blues · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-12T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Kahibah · 3-2 (W)
Broadmeadow Magic
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Northern NSW NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broadmeadow Magic | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 36 | 49 |
| 2 | Maitland | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 3 | Weston Bears | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 41 |
| 4 | Edgeworth Eagles | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 39 |
| 5 | Belmont Swansea | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 35 |
| 6 | Cooks Hill United | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Valentine | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -17 | 26 |
| 8 | Lambton Jaffas | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 25 |
| 9 | Adamstown Rosebuds | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | -11 | 24 |
| 10 | Hamilton Olympic | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -1 | 21 |
| 11 | Kahibah | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -18 | 20 |
| 12 | Charlestown City Blues | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -37 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Broadmeadow Magic win, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.