Valentine vs Charlestown City Blues Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Valentine and 1.15 for Charlestown City Blues, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Valentine the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Valentine win

54.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.89 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Valentine home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Valentine to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for Valentine and 1.15 for Charlestown City Blues, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Valentine win55%

Draw22%

Charlestown City Blues win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–110.4%
2–19.8%
1–09.0%
2–08.5%
3–16.2%

Recent form

Valentine

2026-08-16T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Weston Bears · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-08T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamilton Olympic · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-01T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Adamstown Rosebuds · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-25T06:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlestown City Blues · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-12T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Kahibah · 3-2 (W)

Charlestown City Blues

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Northern NSW NPL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Broadmeadow Magic	22	15	4	3	36	49
2	Maitland	22	13	3	6	8	42
3	Weston Bears	22	12	5	5	15	41
4	Edgeworth Eagles	22	11	6	5	10	39
5	Belmont Swansea	22	10	5	7	3	35
6	Cooks Hill United	22	9	6	7	7	33
7	Valentine	22	7	5	10	-17	26
8	Lambton Jaffas	22	7	4	11	5	25
9	Adamstown Rosebuds	22	6	6	10	-11	24
10	Hamilton Olympic	22	5	6	11	-1	21
11	Kahibah	22	6	2	14	-18	20
12	Charlestown City Blues	22	4	2	16	-37	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Valentine win, at 54.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.