Stadio Comunale · Analysis updated 18:14 UTC
Valenzana vs Sestri Levante Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Valenzana and 1.21 for Sestri Levante, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Valenzana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Valenzana home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sestri Levante away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Valenzana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 27% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Valenzana and 1.21 for Sestri Levante, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–08.1%
Recent form
Valenzana
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Biellese · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanremese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Saluzzo · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fezzanese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Borgosesia · 1-2 (L)
Sestri Levante
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sampdoria U20 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Genoa U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanremese · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Celle Varazze · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Asti · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandria | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Biellese | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Millesimo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Chisola | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Ligorna | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Sanremese | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Derthona | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Lascaris | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 9 | Asti | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Imperia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Saluzzo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Gozzano | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Bra | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Borgosesia | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Sestri Levante | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | Fezzanese | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Valenzana | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 18 | Celle Varazze | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.