Intility Arena · Referee S. Amland · Analysis updated 01:49 UTC
Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Valerenga and 2.10 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.73. That distribution gives Bodo/Glimt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.
Model pick
Bodo/Glimt to Win
48.9% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 2.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.6%
- 1–18.2%
- 2–27.0%
- 2–16.7%
- 1–36.0%
Why the model likes this
Valerenga home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bodo/Glimt away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bodo/Glimt to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 30% / 21% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Valerenga and 2.10 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined 3.73 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Valerenga
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodo/Glimt · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ham-Kam · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Brann · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tromso · 0-4 (L)
Bodo/Glimt
- 2026-08-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Union St. Gilloise · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Valerenga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Union St. Gilloise · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-07-31T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lillestrom · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandefjord · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodo/Glimt | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 41 |
| 2 | Viking | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 40 |
| 3 | Tromso | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 34 |
| 4 | Lillestrom | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 26 |
| 5 | Molde | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 24 |
| 6 | Rosenborg | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 24 |
| 7 | Brann | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 22 |
| 8 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 22 |
| 9 | Ham-Kam | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 22 |
| 10 | Valerenga | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 20 |
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 20 |
| 12 | KFUM Oslo | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 19 |
| 13 | Sandefjord | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -9 | 15 |
| 14 | Kristiansund BK | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -11 | 15 |
| 15 | Aalesund | 16 | 2 | 8 | 6 | -14 | 14 |
| 16 | Start | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | -22 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.