Intility Arena · Referee M. Bockova · Analysis updated 06:47 UTC
Vålerenga W vs Ferencváros W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for Vålerenga W and 1.26 for Ferencváros W, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Vålerenga W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vålerenga W win
63.0% probability
Expected goals
2.42 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vålerenga W home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ferencváros W away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vålerenga W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 19% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.42 goals for Vålerenga W and 1.26 for Ferencváros W, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–17.7%
- 3–17.5%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–06.1%
Recent form
Vålerenga W
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs LSK Kvinner W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosenborg W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Molde W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord W · 1-4 (L)
Ferencváros W
- 2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Mitrovica W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs PAOK W · 2-3 (L)
- 2025-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Praha W · 0-5 (L)
- 2025-10-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Praha W · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vålerenga W · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Champions League Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| 2 | Lyon W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 |
| 3 | Paris Saint Germain W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 4 | Bayern Munich W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 5 | Arsenal W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Inter Milano W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Chelsea W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Køge W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Juventus W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | SL Benfica W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 11 | Manchester City W | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Real Madrid W | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Austria Wien W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 | Paris FC W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | OH Leuven W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 1 |
| 16 | Roma W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 1 |
| 17 | Häcken W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Servette Chênois W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vålerenga W win, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.