Vall de Uxó vs Jove Español Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Vall de Uxó and 0.62 for Jove Español, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Vall de Uxó the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Vall de Uxó win

67.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.86 – 0.62

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vall de Uxó home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jove Español away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Vall de Uxó win67%

Draw21%

Jove Español win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–015.5%
2–014.5%
1–19.7%
3–09.0%
2–19.0%

Recent form

Vall de Uxó

2026-05-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Utiel · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-02T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Saguntino · 0-4 (L)
2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Alzira · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jove Español · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Roda · 1-0 (W)

Jove Español

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Roda · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Soneja · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Acero · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vall de Uxó · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hércules II · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · Vall de Uxó 2-1 Jove Español (Tercera División RFEF - Group 6)
2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · Vall de Uxó 1-1 Jove Español (Tercera División RFEF - Group 6)
2026-01-14T18:00:00.000Z · Vall de Uxó 2-1 Jove Español (Tercera División RFEF - Group 6)
2025-04-27T16:00:00.000Z · Vall de Uxó 2-0 Jove Español (Tercera División RFEF - Group 6)
2024-12-15T11:00:00.000Z · Vall de Uxó 0-1 Jove Español (Tercera División RFEF - Group 6)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Villarreal III	8	7	0	1	8	21
2	Levante II	8	5	2	1	11	17
3	Vall de Uxó	7	3	4	0	6	13
4	Hércules II	7	3	3	1	3	12
5	Acero	8	2	5	1	2	11
6	Torrent	7	3	1	3	2	10
7	Eldense B	8	2	4	2	1	10
8	Crevillente	8	2	4	2	0	10
9	Roda	7	2	3	2	1	9
10	Atzeneta	7	1	5	1	0	8
11	Saguntino	7	2	2	3	-1	8
12	Buñol	7	2	2	3	-4	8
13	SC Torrevieja	8	2	2	4	-6	8
14	Ontinyent 1931	7	2	1	4	-1	7
15	Torrellano	7	2	1	4	-4	7
16	Soneja	7	2	1	4	-5	7
17	Jove Español	7	1	3	3	-6	6
18	Utiel	7	0	3	4	-7	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Vall de Uxó win, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.