· Analysis updated 15:48 UTC
Valladolid vs Leganes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Valladolid and 0.95 for Leganes, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Valladolid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Valladolid home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Leganes away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Valladolid to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 30% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Valladolid and 0.95 for Leganes, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.1%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.6%
- 0–111.9%
- 2–07.9%
Recent form
Valladolid
- 2026-10-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Albacete · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Palmas · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Cordoba · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · A vs AD Ceuta FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Oviedo · 0-3 (L)
Leganes
- 2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Almeria · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cadiz · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Granada CF · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tenerife · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Eibar | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 3 | Castellón | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Mallorca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Sabadell | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Sporting Gijon | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Girona | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | Burgos | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Oviedo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Granada CF | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 11 | Valladolid | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 | Tenerife | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Celta de Vigo II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Eldense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Las Palmas | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Leganes | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 17 | FC Andorra | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 18 | Cordoba | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.