Valletta FC vs Zabbar St. Patrick Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Valletta FC and 0.80 for Zabbar St. Patrick, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Valletta FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Valletta FC win

74.9% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.53 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Valletta FC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zabbar St. Patrick away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Valletta FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 16% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.53 goals for Valletta FC and 0.80 for Zabbar St. Patrick, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Valletta FC win75%

Draw16%

Zabbar St. Patrick win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

25%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

2–011.5%
3–09.7%
2–19.2%
1–09.1%
3–17.7%

Recent form

Valletta FC

2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Sliema Wanderers · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Birkirkara · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Birzebbuga · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Balzan FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Floriana · 2-0 (W)

Zabbar St. Patrick

2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Marsaxlokk · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Birkirkara · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gzira United · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamrun Spartans · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hibernians · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · Valletta FC 4-2 Zabbar St. Patrick (Premier League)
2026-02-17T17:30:00.000Z · Valletta FC 0-0 Zabbar St. Patrick (Premier League)
2025-11-02T15:00:00.000Z · Valletta FC 0-2 Zabbar St. Patrick (Premier League)
2023-01-15T10:00:00.000Z · Valletta FC 5-1 Zabbar St. Patrick (FA Trophy)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Valletta FC	9	7	1	1	14	22
2	Marsaxlokk	10	5	2	3	2	17
3	Sliema Wanderers	10	5	2	3	1	17
4	Floriana	9	4	4	1	9	16
5	Hamrun Spartans	9	3	4	2	3	13
6	Mosta	9	3	4	2	0	13
7	Hibernians	9	3	3	3	-3	12
8	Balzan FC	9	2	5	2	2	11
9	Birkirkara	9	3	2	4	1	11
10	Zabbar St. Patrick	9	2	2	5	-5	8
11	Gzira United	9	0	4	5	-12	4
12	Birzebbuga	9	1	1	7	-12	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Valletta FC win, at 74.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.