Charentsavan City Stadium · Analysis updated 16:05 UTC
Van vs Ararat Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Van and 1.63 for Ararat, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Ararat the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ararat win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Van home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ararat away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ararat to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 29% / 24% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Van and 1.63 for Ararat, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–19.2%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–17.2%
Recent form
Van
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Noah · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BKMA · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alashkert · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Shirak · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Syunik · 1-1 (D)
Ararat
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Syunik · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gandzasar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Noah · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyunik Yerevan · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Pyunik Yerevan | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Ararat-Armenia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Alashkert | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 5 | FC Urartu | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sardarapat | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 7 | Shirak | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Ararat | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 9 | BKMA | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 10 | Van | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 7 |
| 11 | Syunik | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Gandzasar | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ararat win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.