Charentsavan City Stadium · Analysis updated 01:37 UTC
Van vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Van and 0.60 for Ararat-Armenia, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Van the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Van win
75.0% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Van home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ararat-Armenia away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Van to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 17% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Van and 0.60 for Ararat-Armenia, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.6%
- 1–013.0%
- 3–011.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–17.8%
Recent form
Van
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Noah · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BKMA · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alashkert · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Shirak · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Syunik · 1-1 (D)
Ararat-Armenia
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs BKMA · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Alashkert · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 28 |
| 2 | Pyunik Yerevan | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Ararat-Armenia | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Alashkert | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 5 | FC Urartu | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Sardarapat | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 | Shirak | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Ararat | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 9 | Van | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -17 | 10 |
| 10 | Syunik | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 8 |
| 11 | BKMA | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 12 | Gandzasar | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Van win, at 75.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.