Willoughby Community Park · Referee Michael Venne, Canada · Analysis updated 15:09 UTC
Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.00 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Vancouver FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vancouver FC win
67.9% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vancouver FC home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pacific FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vancouver FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 18% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Vancouver FC and 1.00 for Pacific FC, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–18.1%
- 3–07.6%
Recent form
Vancouver FC
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Forge · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T02:00:00.000Z · H vs York United · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T00:10:00.000Z · A vs Pacific FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs York United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 3-2 (W)
Pacific FC
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs York United · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T00:10:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T23:30:00.000Z · A vs York United · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Ottawa · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Canadian Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 25 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 32 | 53 |
| 2 | Forge | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 51 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | -3 | 40 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 33 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | -4 | 27 |
| 7 | York United | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | -16 | 27 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 25 | 2 | 8 | 15 | -25 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vancouver FC win, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.