Willoughby Community Park · Analysis updated 20:02 UTC
Vancouver FC vs York United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.30 for York United, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Vancouver FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vancouver FC win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vancouver FC home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
York United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–27.2%
Recent form
Vancouver FC
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Forge · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T02:00:00.000Z · H vs York United · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T00:10:00.000Z · A vs Pacific FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs York United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 3-2 (W)
York United
- 2026-10-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Supra du Quebec · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Forge · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · Vancouver FC 1-3 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-07-04T23:00:00.000Z · Vancouver FC 4-0 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-04-19T21:00:00.000Z · Vancouver FC 0-1 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · Vancouver FC 2-1 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-07-19T20:00:00.000Z · Vancouver FC 0-4 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-05-25T18:00:00.000Z · Vancouver FC 0-1 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-04-06T23:00:00.000Z · Vancouver FC 0-2 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-09-07T02:00:00.000Z · Vancouver FC 0-1 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-07-20T22:00:00.000Z · Vancouver FC 1-1 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-06-09T22:00:00.000Z · Vancouver FC 2-2 York United (Canadian Premier League)
Canadian Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 57 |
| 2 | Forge | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 57 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | -2 | 43 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 37 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | -4 | 35 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | -5 | 28 |
| 7 | York United | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -24 | 27 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 27 | 2 | 8 | 17 | -29 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vancouver FC win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.