Swangard Stadium · Analysis updated 17:43 UTC
Vancouver Whitecaps II vs Austin II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Vancouver Whitecaps II and 1.95 for Austin II, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Austin II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Austin II win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vancouver Whitecaps II home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Austin II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Austin II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 25% / 22% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Vancouver Whitecaps II and 1.95 for Austin II, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–17.6%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–16.4%
Recent form
Vancouver Whitecaps II
- 2026-08-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting KC II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-27T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles FC II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Austin II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-02T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Tacoma Defiance · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-07-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Louis City II · 1-1 (D)
Austin II
- 2026-09-04T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Houston Dynamo FC II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Portland Timbers II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T00:30:00.000Z · H vs The Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-20T00:45:00.000Z · A vs North Texas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-16T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps II · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Austin II win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.