BC Place · Referee R. Villanueva · Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
Vancouver Whitecaps vs CF Montreal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Vancouver Whitecaps and 1.75 for CF Montreal, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives CF Montreal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.8% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vancouver Whitecaps home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CF Montreal away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CF Montreal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 37% / 23% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Vancouver Whitecaps and 1.75 for CF Montreal, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.7%
Recent form
Vancouver Whitecaps
- 2026-10-11T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Angeles FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Fire · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · H vs DC United · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Salt Lake · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Montreal · 1-2 (L)
CF Montreal
- 2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Columbus Crew · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlotte · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Canadian Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF Montreal | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Forge | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Supra du Quebec | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 5 | Atlético Ottawa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Saint-Laurent | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Cavalry FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Vancouver FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | York United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Pacific FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 12 | Woodbridge Strikers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | Langley United Sa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | HFX Wanderers FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 15 | Calgary Blizzard SC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.