Vänersborgs FK vs Ahlafors Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Vänersborgs FK and 2.25 for Ahlafors, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Ahlafors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ahlafors win

58.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 2.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vänersborgs FK home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ahlafors away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Vänersborgs FK win21%

Draw20%

Ahlafors win59%

Double chance 1X

41%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–29.5%
1–18.4%
0–27.3%
1–37.1%
0–16.5%

Recent form

Vänersborgs FK

2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tord · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stenungsund · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-04T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Ahlafors · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Karlstad II · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-21T17:15:00.000Z · H vs IFK Skövde · 0-1 (L)

Ahlafors

2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Motala · 6-2 (W)
2026-09-25T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Vänersborgs IF · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Skara · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Husqvarna · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-04T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Vänersborgs FK · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-04T17:15:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 1-0 Ahlafors (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
2026-04-10T16:00:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 1-1 Ahlafors (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
2025-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 1-1 Ahlafors (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
2025-06-13T17:00:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 0-1 Ahlafors (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
2024-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 0-1 Ahlafors (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
2024-05-03T17:30:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 2-3 Ahlafors (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
2022-07-30T14:00:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 3-3 Ahlafors (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
2022-04-03T13:00:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 3-1 Ahlafors (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
2021-09-25T11:00:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 3-4 Ahlafors (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
2021-06-18T17:00:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 1-3 Ahlafors (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)

Division 2 - Norra Götaland table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Husqvarna	26	21	3	2	39	66
2	Skara	26	18	5	3	30	59
3	IFK Skövde	26	15	5	6	17	50
4	Ahlafors	26	13	7	6	29	46
5	Grebbestad	26	12	4	10	6	40
6	Stenungsund	26	11	6	9	14	39
7	Herrestads	26	10	7	9	-4	37
8	Lidköping	26	9	6	11	-8	33
9	Vänersborgs FK	26	9	5	12	-9	32
10	Kumla	26	7	8	11	-17	29
11	Motala	26	6	8	12	-9	26
12	Tord	26	4	10	12	-17	22
13	IF Karlstad II	26	3	7	16	-21	16
14	Vänersborgs IF	26	2	3	21	-50	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ahlafors win, at 58.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.