· Analysis updated 15:19 UTC
Vänersborgs FK vs Husqvarna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Vänersborgs FK and 2.01 for Husqvarna, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Husqvarna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Husqvarna win
59.8% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 2.01
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vänersborgs FK home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Husqvarna away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Husqvarna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 19% / 21% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Vänersborgs FK and 2.01 for Husqvarna, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.9%
- 0–29.6%
- 0–19.5%
- 1–36.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.48 | 61.2% | 63.6% | 1.57 | +2.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.16 | 77.2% | 78.8% | 1.27 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Home | 5.00 | 17.8% | 19.0% | 5.26 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Away | 1.50 | 59.4% | 59.8% | 1.67 | +0.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.08 | 43.8% | 44.0% | 2.27 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.56 | 58.7% | 58.8% | 1.70 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.22 | 41.3% | 41.2% | 2.43 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 56.2% | 56.0% | 1.79 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.20 | 40.7% | 40.2% | 2.49 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.09 | 82.1% | 81.0% | 1.23 | -1.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.92 | 22.7% | 21.2% | 4.72 | -1.5 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.33 | 38.8% | 36.4% | 2.75 | -2.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Vänersborgs FK
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tord · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stenungsund · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Ahlafors · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Karlstad II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T17:15:00.000Z · H vs IFK Skövde · 0-1 (L)
Husqvarna
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Herrestads · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vänersborgs IF · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Vänersborgs FK · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Skövde · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ahlafors · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 1-3 Husqvarna (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2026-06-14T11:00:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 1-3 Husqvarna (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
Division 2 - Norra Götaland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Husqvarna | 26 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 66 |
| 2 | Skara | 26 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 59 |
| 3 | IFK Skövde | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 50 |
| 4 | Ahlafors | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 29 | 46 |
| 5 | Grebbestad | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Stenungsund | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 39 |
| 7 | Herrestads | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 37 |
| 8 | Lidköping | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -8 | 33 |
| 9 | Vänersborgs FK | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 10 | Kumla | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | -17 | 29 |
| 11 | Motala | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 26 |
| 12 | Tord | 26 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -17 | 22 |
| 13 | IF Karlstad II | 26 | 3 | 7 | 16 | -21 | 16 |
| 14 | Vänersborgs IF | 26 | 2 | 3 | 21 | -50 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Husqvarna win, at 59.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.