· Analysis updated 14:12 UTC
Vänersborgs FK vs Kumla Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Vänersborgs FK and 1.18 for Kumla, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Vänersborgs FK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vänersborgs FK win
57.0% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vänersborgs FK home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kumla away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–08.4%
- 1–08.3%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Vänersborgs FK
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tord · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stenungsund · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Ahlafors · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Karlstad II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T17:15:00.000Z · H vs IFK Skövde · 0-1 (L)
Kumla
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Herrestads · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Motala · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Skövde · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ahlafors · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Husqvarna · 2-6 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T11:00:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 0-0 Kumla (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2025-08-02T12:00:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 2-1 Kumla (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2025-05-24T14:00:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 2-1 Kumla (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2024-10-11T17:30:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 0-4 Kumla (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2024-06-15T12:00:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 2-3 Kumla (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2022-06-23T18:15:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 1-3 Kumla (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2022-04-09T14:00:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 0-1 Kumla (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2021-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 4-1 Kumla (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2021-08-14T12:00:00.000Z · Vänersborgs FK 0-1 Kumla (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
Division 2 - Norra Götaland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Husqvarna | 26 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 66 |
| 2 | Skara | 26 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 59 |
| 3 | IFK Skövde | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 50 |
| 4 | Ahlafors | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 29 | 46 |
| 5 | Grebbestad | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Stenungsund | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 39 |
| 7 | Herrestads | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 37 |
| 8 | Lidköping | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -8 | 33 |
| 9 | Vänersborgs FK | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 10 | Kumla | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | -17 | 29 |
| 11 | Motala | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 26 |
| 12 | Tord | 26 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -17 | 22 |
| 13 | IF Karlstad II | 26 | 3 | 7 | 16 | -21 | 16 |
| 14 | Vänersborgs IF | 26 | 2 | 3 | 21 | -50 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vänersborgs FK win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.