Vänersborgs FK vs Stenungsund Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Vänersborgs FK and 1.90 for Stenungsund, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Stenungsund the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

61.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 1.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vänersborgs FK home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stenungsund away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stenungsund to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 38% / 21% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Vänersborgs FK and 1.90 for Stenungsund, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Vänersborgs FK win38%

Draw21%

Stenungsund win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–18.3%
1–27.9%
2–17.6%
2–27.3%
1–35.0%

Recent form

Vänersborgs FK

2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tord · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stenungsund · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-04T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Ahlafors · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Karlstad II · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-21T17:15:00.000Z · H vs IFK Skövde · 0-1 (L)

Stenungsund

2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tord · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Karlstad II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vänersborgs FK · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Motala · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Herrestads · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Division 2 - Norra Götaland table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Husqvarna	26	21	3	2	39	66
2	Skara	26	18	5	3	30	59
3	IFK Skövde	26	15	5	6	17	50
4	Ahlafors	26	13	7	6	29	46
5	Grebbestad	26	12	4	10	6	40
6	Stenungsund	26	11	6	9	14	39
7	Herrestads	26	10	7	9	-4	37
8	Lidköping	26	9	6	11	-8	33
9	Vänersborgs FK	26	9	5	12	-9	32
10	Kumla	26	7	8	11	-17	29
11	Motala	26	6	8	12	-9	26
12	Tord	26	4	10	12	-17	22
13	IF Karlstad II	26	3	7	16	-21	16
14	Vänersborgs IF	26	2	3	21	-50	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.