Prifoods Stadium · Referee R. Tanaka · Analysis updated 14:55 UTC
Vanraure Hachinohe vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Vanraure Hachinohe and 1.25 for Tegevajaro Miyazaki, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Tegevajaro Miyazaki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
73.3% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vanraure Hachinohe home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tegevajaro Miyazaki away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.6%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–29.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.80 (model 57.7% vs market 51.5%, edge +6.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.80 | 51.5% | 57.7% | 1.73 | +6.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.73 | 54.3% | 55.6% | 1.80 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Away | 2.05 | 43.8% | 44.4% | 2.25 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.6% | 71.1% | 1.41 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.0% | 28.9% | 3.46 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 3.30 | 27.2% | 26.7% | 3.75 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.25 | 75.1% | 73.3% | 1.36 | -1.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 48.5% | 42.3% | 2.36 | -6.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Vanraure Hachinohe
- 2026-09-18T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Shonan Bellmare · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Fujieda MYFC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-02T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Tochigi City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 1-0 (W)
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Montedio Yamagata · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Jubilo Iwata · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Kataller Toyama · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kawasaki Frontale · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-09-14T10:00:00.000Z · Vanraure Hachinohe 0-1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki (J3 League)
- 2025-07-05T09:30:00.000Z · Vanraure Hachinohe 2-1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki (J3 League)
- 2024-08-31T10:00:00.000Z · Vanraure Hachinohe 2-3 Tegevajaro Miyazaki (J3 League)
- 2024-06-16T04:00:00.000Z · Vanraure Hachinohe 0-0 Tegevajaro Miyazaki (J3 League)
- 2023-11-12T04:00:00.000Z · Vanraure Hachinohe 4-3 Tegevajaro Miyazaki (J3 League)
- 2023-06-04T05:00:00.000Z · Vanraure Hachinohe 0-0 Tegevajaro Miyazaki (J3 League)
- 2022-09-03T10:00:00.000Z · Vanraure Hachinohe 1-2 Tegevajaro Miyazaki (J3 League)
- 2022-03-13T04:00:00.000Z · Vanraure Hachinohe 0-2 Tegevajaro Miyazaki (J3 League)
- 2021-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · Vanraure Hachinohe 0-1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki (J3 League)
- 2021-06-06T04:00:00.000Z · Vanraure Hachinohe 0-2 Tegevajaro Miyazaki (J3 League)
J2 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 27 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 26 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Shonan Bellmare | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Omiya Ardija | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Oita Trinita | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | Iwaki | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 17 |
| 10 | Sagan Tosu | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Tokushima Vortis | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 | Consadole Sapporo | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Blaublitz Akita | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 14 | Jubilo Iwata | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Fujieda MYFC | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 16 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 14 |
| 17 | Montedio Yamagata | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -2 | 13 |
| 18 | Tochigi City | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 12 |
| 19 | Imabari | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.