Van Ataturk Stadi · Referee Direnc Tonusluoglu, Türkiye · Analysis updated 16:39 UTC
Vanspor FK vs Kayserispor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Vanspor FK and 2.36 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Kayserispor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kayserispor win
73.8% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 2.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kayserispor away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kayserispor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 10% / 17% / 74% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for Vanspor FK and 2.36 for Kayserispor, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 47%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
26%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.7%
- 0–110.8%
- 0–310.0%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–17.8%
Recent form
Vanspor FK
Kayserispor
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mardin 1969 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs İstanbulspor · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Esenler Erokspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fatih Karagümrük · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bursaspor · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T18:30:00.000Z · Vanspor FK 0-2 Kayserispor (1. Lig)
- 2023-12-06T16:00:00.000Z · Vanspor FK 0-4 Kayserispor (Türkiye Kupası)
- 2017-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · Vanspor FK 0-1 Kayserispor (Türkiye Kupası)
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayserispor | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | Iğdır FK | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | Bursaspor | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Batman Petrolspor | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Keçiörengücü | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 6 | Mardin 1969 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Sarıyer | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 | Bandırmaspor | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| 10 | Fatih Karagümrük | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 11 | Sivasspor | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 12 | Muğlaspor | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 | Bodrum FK | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 14 | Pendikspor | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 10 |
| 15 | Manisa F.K. | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 16 | Esenler Erokspor | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Ümraniyespor | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 18 | Vanspor FK | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 5 |
| 20 | Boluspor | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kayserispor win, at 73.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.